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Posted by admin | Posted in Scrapbooking | Posted on 02-11-2009
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INVESTING IN THE YEARS elections! June 13, 2008.
Since 1940 there have been only four years of negative choices in the market of reduced order year, falls on average only 5.2%.
The most recent was 2000, when was the Dow by 13.2% in a mid-year correction, but recovered to close just 6.2% for the year (although, as we saw was the first year of the severe 2000-2002 bear market).
So this year the choice was somewhat unusual to date.
The Dow and 6.5% below its peak of October, this year began. Then fell to another 11.5% since the beginning of its correction low in early March. In this stage was 19% below its high for the month of October, close to the definition of a bear market (down 20%).
A rally for an average period commenced from the oversold condition in this low in March. But at least for the moment seems ended in early May The Dow has fallen 6.5% over the past six weeks, 14% from their peak in October, with many analysts predict is way, at least retest its March low.
So what is so different this election year?
I think it comes down to this.
In almost every cycle for the four presidential year since at least 1918, an economic recession, significant corrections of the stock market and down markets are produced in the first two years of each presidential term, and that Washington ignored the economy and allows for correction of the excesses place.
Then, as if by magic, Washington would focus on the economy in the 2nd and 3rd of each term. All stops are removed, such as lower interest rates, increase public spending, and any other stimulant efforts are needed to ensure that the economy was strong, when elections next year.
This has been the norm, regardless of which party was in power, and is the basis of four very consistent year presidential cycle.
You came this way in the first Bush administration, with the market from 2000-2002 take the first two years of the term, then the stimulus plan growing out of Washington in 2002 and 2003, with plenty of time to end the bear market and have the economy and the stock market looking good in time for the 2004 elections.
Without But this does not happen in this year of four presidential cycle.
There was not even 10% "drop" in the market in 2005 and 2006, much less a normal market correction. And despite the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006, slowing economic growth, and the banking system of the entrance to the edge total collapse of last year, there were no efforts to provide support to economic recovery this year, the election year.
So here we are in a rare election years in fact, when instead of being super strong, the economy is slowing dramatically and may even be a recession in the coming months, if not already. (The Fed now expects economic growth this year of only 0.3% to 1.2% for the year to its forecast already dismal 1.3% to 2.0% just a few months earlier).
Instead of being optimistic and enthusiastic, as is often the case in good economic times in election years, and consumption levels of business confidence is at multi-year low pessimism. For example, the University of Michigan / Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index published last week fell to just 56.7 in June, against 59.8 in May, and 96.9 months under sixteen. The Reading this month is a 28-year low.
So while election years tend to be positive for the stock market, the risk of a serious This year just might cons say, simply because it is an election year. This is an election year increasingly diverse economy and the market.
Sy Smith publishes the financial website = "_blank"> Internet www.StreetSmartReport.com goal and a Free daily blog www.SyHardingblog.com. In 1999 he authored Riding The Bear - How to prosper in the Coming Bear Market. His latest book is beating the market with ease! - Strategies season proved twice the performance of the market!
About the Author:
Sy Harding is CEO of Asset Management Research Corp., author of 1999's Riding the Bear and 2007's Beat the Market the Easy Way, editor of www.StreetSmartReport.com, and www.SyHardingblog.com.
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com - Investing in Election Years!
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